Economic outlook improves in Warwickshire according to new survey

The survey, which is delivered in partnership with Prime Accountants Group, is analysed by the Economy & Skills Group at Warwickshire County Council. From the responses of businesses across the services and manufacturing sector, it gives scores out of 100 where anything above 50 indicates growth and anything below 50 is negative.

The overall economic outlook now has a score of 60.1 based on the survey results compared to 55.2 at the end of 2023.

The outlook is calculated based on a range of questions around orders, both at home and abroad, employment prospects and investment and cashflow.

The survey showed that domestic orders in both the service sector and among manufacturers have risen significantly among those firms surveyed. However, it also revealed a dip in overseas sales.

Employment prospects in both sectors was still in positive territory but remained fairly flat compared to three months before, which may suggest a cooling in businesses’ desire to hire new staff.

There was also a significant rise in the potential for investment and general cashflow with both the service sector and manufacturing moving above 50 having been below at the end of 2023.

Business confidence in the service sector hit 70.7 and although it fell in manufacturing in the region, it was still well above 50 at 59.5.

Corin Crane, chief executive of the Coventry and Warwickshire Chamber of Commerce, said: “When you consider that the national economy slipped into technical recession at the end of 2023, this survey would indicate that Coventry and Warwickshire is still in good shape.

“This area has always been a dynamic, forward-thinking place to do business and that remains the case despite a whole host of challenges that firms have faced over many years now.

“We know that there are aspects of our economy that need fixing to help businesses to grow – such as more land for employment, closing the skills gap and support to make the transition to net zero – and we will continue to speak up on those issues and also help to find solutions to them.”

Steve Harcourt, president of the Chamber and director of Prime Accountants Group, added: “Businesses have had a tough few years and we all know that global circumstances remain fragile. We will continue to highlight some of the barriers to growth that are preventing companies from expanding.

“That said, the business outlook for the region based on the latest QES looks positive, with more exciting developments on the horizon.”

Todd Williams, Business Intelligence Analyst at Warwickshire County Council, said: “Quarter one at a national level improved slightly with continuing strong growth in services output, and early signs of a potential return to growth for manufacturing output.

“Meanwhile, the latest QES results show the local economy maintaining optimism alongside a significant reduction in spare capacity.

“The results show that the overall economic outlook index for Coventry and Warwickshire aligning with the national trend. Local services businesses are positive about the domestic market, however sentiment about the services overseas market have fallen. The local manufacturing business sentiment is solidifying around growth in both domestic and overseas markets.

“While there are local short-term concerns, especially around recruiting, labour costs and interest rates – both the local manufacturing and service sectors show strong confidence that business is expected to improve over the next 12 months.”