Will Leamington, Warwick and Kenilworth move out of tier three? MP says it will be a close call

Warwickshire will soon find out if it is to stay under the highest Covid restrictions - or move into tier two.

The Government said it will review its decision for all areas on December 16 - two weeks after it put Warwickshire into tier three, causing much uproar.

The decision will be announced tomorrow (Thursday).

Officials have said that this time around, Warwickshire will be treated individually and not alongside Coventry and Solihull.

Speaking ahead of the decision, Warwick and Leamington MP Matt Western said the decision could go either way.

But he added that businesses have already felt the hit of the last fortnight, going as far as saying that it is 'too late' for some, not matter what happens today.

WHAT WILL THE GOVERNMENT LOOK AT WHEN DECIDING TIER?

Decisions on tiers are made by ministers based on public health recommendations informed by the following factors:

1. Case detection rate (in all age groups and, in particular, among the over 60s)

2. How quickly case rates are rising or falling

3. Positivity in the general population

4. Pressure on the NHS – including current and projected NHS capacity – including admissions, bed occupancy and staff absences

5. Local context and exceptional circumstances such as a local but contained outbreak

If these indicators are not improving, an area may be moved up a tier and if the trajectory improves, the area may move to a lower tier.

Leamington and Warwick have seen a rise in cases over the last week while Warwickshire as a whole has seen a 20 per cent increase (134 new cases) - although the county is still under the national average (138.1 per 100,000 people).

Click here to see our previous article which gives more detail on the figures.

The rolling case rate remains higher in Coventry and Solihull.

Mr Western added: “This is going to be an extremely tough call for the government. But in any future reviews, Warwickshire must be considered as its own region without Coventry and Solihull.

"All local councils and representatives must be involved in any discussions with the government."

WHAT ABOUT BUSINESSES?

Mr Western said some businesses have told him that it is already ‘too late’ for Warwickshire restrictions to be relaxed and they have suffered 'catastrophic losses' in the last fortnight after being forced to remain closed since Warwickshire went into Tier 3 on December 2.

Businesses, particularly those in the hospitality sector, were previously eager to see restrictions immediately loosened so they could reopen.

Mr Western said: “While we should have been in Tier 2 this past fortnight, things are moving quickly and there has been a rapid rise in the number of cases.

“Businesses that were previously devastated to have to close say opening would not be worth the risks with potential revenues so insubstantial. They say it's too late."

Owner of the Newbold Comyn Arms Sarah Miller said: "It's no good reopening and then having to shut again. We wouldn't know whether we would be able to get the stock, whether we have to serve a smaller menu, or even which employees to bring off furlough.

"It comes down to finances and I'm really fearful this could be it."

We will bring you the decision on whether Warwickshire moves out or stays in tier three when it is announced